Tips for Writing Your Thesis Statement. 1. Determine what kind of paper you are writing: An analytical paper breaks down an issue or an idea into its component parts, evaluates the issue or idea, and presents this breakdown and evaluation to the audience.; An expository (explanatory) paper explains something to the audience.; An argumentative paper makes a claim about a topic and justifies Mar 12, · This approach works best if the topic of your argumentative essay is highly polemical or is a potential seed for different discussions. For instance, such issues as causes of global warming, gender identification problems, and philosophical problems work best if the Rogerian approach is applied Jan 23, · There are usually three body paragraphs within an academic essay, each with a single argument or focus. The argument (or focus) is clarified to the reader through a topic sentence, which appears at the start of each paragraph. If the ice melts: Earth post-global warming predictions; Informative Essay Topics for Communications, Media Studies
How to Write an Argumentative Essay: Outline and Examples | EssayPro
The Doomsday argument DA is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. Simply put, it says that supposing that all humans are born in a random order, chances are that any one human is born roughly in the middle.
It was first proposed in an explicit way by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter in[1] from which it is sometimes called the Carter catastrophe ; the argument was subsequently championed by the philosopher John A.
Leslie and has since been independently discovered by J. Richard Gott [2] and Holger Bech Nielsen. A more general form was given earlier in the Lindy effect[4] in which for certain phenomena the future life expectancy is proportional to though not necessarily equal to the current age, and is based on decreasing mortality rate over time: old things endure.
f is uniformly distributed on 0, argument essay on global warming even after learning of the absolute position n. Assuming that the world population stabilizes at 10 billion and a life expectancy of 80 yearsit can be estimated that the remaining billion humans will be born in years. Depending on the projection of world population in the forthcoming centuries, argument essay on global warming, estimates may vary, but the main point of the argument is that it is unlikely that more than 1.
Assume for simplicity that the total number of humans who will ever be born is 60 billion N 1or 6, billion N 2. It is possible to sum the probabilities for each value of N and therefore to compute a statistical 'confidence limit' on N.
On the other hand, it is possible to conclude, given Xthat N 2 is more likely than N 1if a different prior is used for N. Taking P X to be flat, we still have to make an assumption about the prior probability P N that the total number of humans is N. If we conclude that N 2 is much more likely than N 1 for example, because producing a larger population takes more time, increasing the chance that a low-probability but cataclysmic natural event will take place in that timethen P X N can become more heavily weighted towards the bigger value of N.
A further, more detailed discussion, as well as relevant distributions P Nare given below in the Rebuttals section. The Doomsday argument does not say that humanity cannot or will not exist indefinitely.
It does not put any upper limit on the number of humans that will ever exist, nor provide a date for when humanity will become extinct. An abbreviated form of the argument does make these claims, by confusing probability with certainty. The precise numbers vary among specific Doomsday arguments.
This argument has generated a lively philosophical debate, and no consensus has yet emerged on its solution. The variants described below produce the DA by separate derivations. Gott specifically proposes the functional form for the prior distribution of the number of people who will ever be born N. Gott's DA used the vague prior distribution :, argument essay on global warming.
Since Gott specifies the prior distribution of total humans, P NBayes's theorem and the principle of indifference alone give us P N nthe probability of N humans being born if n is a random draw from N :. This is Bayes's theorem for the posterior probability of total population ever born of Nconditioned on population born thus far of n. Now, using the indifference principle:. The unconditioned n distribution of the current population is identical to the vague prior N argument essay on global warming density function, [7] so:.
giving P N n for each specific N through a substitution into the posterior probability equation :. This is the simplest Bayesian derivation of the Doomsday Argument:. The use of a vague prior distribution seems well-motivated as it assumes as little knowledge as possible about Ngiven that any particular function must be chosen.
It is equivalent argument essay on global warming the assumption that the probability density of one's fractional position remains uniformly distributed even after learning of one's absolute position n. Gott's 'reference class' in his original paper was not the number of births, but the number of years 'humans' had existed as a species, which he put atBecause of the 2. This equates to This is how Gott produces a This was much higher than the temporal confidence bound produced by counting births, argument essay on global warming, because it applied the principle of indifference to time.
Producing different estimates by sampling different parameters in the same hypothesis is Bertrand's paradox. Similarly, there is a Gott has also tested this formulation against the Berlin Wall and Broadway and off-Broadway plays. Leslie's argument differs from Gott's version in that he does not assume a vague prior probability distribution for N.
Instead he argues that the force of the Doomsday Argument resides purely in the increased probability of an early Doomsday once you take into account your birth position, regardless of your prior probability distribution for N. He calls this the probability shift. Heinz von Foerster argued that humanity's abilities to construct societies, argument essay on global warming, civilizations and technologies do not result in self inhibition.
Rather, societies' success argument essay on global warming directly with population size. Several follow-up letters, … were published in Science showing that von Foerster's equation was still on track.
The data continued to fit up until The most remarkable thing about von Foerster's model was it predicted that the human population would reach infinity or a mathematical singularity, on Friday, November 13, In fact, von Foerster did not imply that the world population on that day could actually become infinite. The real implication was that the world population growth pattern followed for many centuries prior to was about to come to an end and be transformed into argument essay on global warming radically different pattern, argument essay on global warming.
Note that this prediction began to be fulfilled just in a few years after the "Doomsday" was published. One of the major areas of Doomsday Argument debate is the reference class argument essay on global warming which n is drawn, and of which N is the ultimate size. The 'standard' Doomsday Argument hypothesis doesn't spend very much time on this point, argument essay on global warming, and simply says that the reference class is the number of 'humans'.
Given that you are human, the Copernican principle could be applied to ask if you were born unusually early, but the grouping of 'human' has been widely challenged on practical and philosophical grounds. Nick Bostrom has argued that consciousness is part of the discriminator between argument essay on global warming is in and what is out of the reference class, and that extraterrestrial intelligences might affect the calculation dramatically.
The following sub-sections relate to different suggested reference classes, each of which has had the standard Doomsday Argument applied to it.
The Doomsday clock shows the expected time to nuclear doomsday by the judgment of an expert boardrather than a Bayesian model. Richard Gott 's temporal version of the Doomsday argument DA would require very strong prior evidence to overcome the improbability of being born in such a special time.
The scientists' warning can be reconciled with the DA, however. In this model, the number of people living through, or born after, Hiroshima is nand the number of people who ever will is N. The scientists' recent use of moving the clock forward to warn of the dangers posed by global warming muddles this reasoning, however. Nick Bostromconsidering observation selection effectshas produced a Self-Sampling Assumption SSA : "that you should think of yourself as if you were a random observer from a suitable reference class".
However, he has refined this idea to apply to observer-moments rather than just observers. He has formalized this [1] as:. Therefore, the 95th percentile extinction-time estimate in this version is years. If one agrees with the statistical methods, still argument essay on global warming with the Doomsday argument DA implies that:. Therefore, these rebuttals try to give reasons for believing that the currently living humans are some of the earliest beings.
This can be refuted if one's other characteristics are typical of the early adopter. The mainstream of potential users will prefer to be involved when the project is nearly complete. If one were to enjoy the project's incompleteness, it is already known that he or she is unusual, prior to the discovery of his or her early involvement.
The analogy to the total-human-population form of the argument is: confidence in a prediction of the distribution of human characteristics that places modern and historic humans outside the mainstream implies that it is already known, before examining n, that it is likely to be very early in N.
Robin Hanson 's paper sums up these criticisms of the DA:, argument essay on global warming. All else is not equal; we have good reasons for thinking we are not randomly selected humans from all who will ever live. The a posteriori observation that extinction level events are rare could be offered as evidence that the DA's predictions are implausible; typically, argument essay on global warming, extinctions of dominant species happen less often than once in a million years.
Therefore, it is argued that human extinction is unlikely within the next ten millennia. Another probabilistic argumentdrawing a different conclusion than the DA.
In Bayesian terms, this response to the DA says that our knowledge of history or ability to prevent disaster produces a prior marginal for N with a minimum value in the trillions.
This is an equally impeccable Bayesian calculation, rejecting the Copernican principle on the grounds that we must be 'special observers' since there is no likely mechanism for humanity to go extinct within the next hundred thousand years. This response is accused of overlooking the technological threats to humanity's survivalto which earlier life was not subject, and is specifically rejected by most of argument essay on global warming DA's academic critics arguably excepting Robin Hanson.
Robin Hanson argues that N' s prior may be exponentially distributed :. Here, c and q are constants. The best way to compare this with Gott's Bayesian argument is to flatten the distribution from the vague prior by having the probability fall off more slowly with N than inverse proportionally. This corresponds to the idea that humanity's growth may be exponential in time with doomsday having a vague prior probability density function in time.
This would mean than Nthe last birth, would have a distribution looking like the following:. In the limit this distribution approaches an unbounded uniform distributionwhere all values of N are equally likely. This is Page et al. Since the probability of reaching a population of size 2 N is usually thought of as the chance of reaching N multiplied by the survival probability from N to 2 N it seems that Pr N must be a monotonically decreasing function of Nbut this doesn't necessarily require an inverse proportionality.
Another objection to the Doomsday Argument is that the expected total human population is actually infinite. The calculation is as follows:. For a similar example of counterintuitive infinite expectations, see the St. Petersburg paradox. One objection is that the possibility of a human existing at all depends on how many humans will ever exist N. If this is a high number, then the possibility of their existing is argument essay on global warming than if only a few humans will ever exist.
Since they do indeed exist, this is evidence that the number of humans that will ever exist is high. This objection, originally by Dennis Dieksargument essay on global warming, is now known by Nick Bostrom 's name for it: the " Argument essay on global warming Assumption objection".
It can be shown that some SIAs prevent any inference of N from n the current population. The Bayesian argument by Carlton M. Caves says that the uniform distribution assumption is incompatible with the Copernican principlenot a consequence of it. He gives a number of examples to argue that Gott's rule is implausible. For instance, he says, imagine stumbling into a birthday party, about which you know nothing:.
Pineda Argument Essay Video - How is Human Activity Contributing to Global Warming?
, time: 5:30Is Global Warming Real? Top 5 Arguments in Favor and Against it - Conserve Energy Future
In this IELTS sample essay, the writer disagrees overall with the opinion presented - that alternative medicine is ineffective and possibly dangerous. However, in the first body paragraph the writer discusses what those who agree with this opinion think. If you are going to put in an opinion that disagrees with your own, it is common to put this argument first Argument 2 – Rise in Earth’s Average Temperature. Global temperature rises during the past century and a half blogger.comng global atmospheric temperatures since the s, scientists point to a steady rise with a stronger period in the 70s, a lull in the 90s and a return to the rising pattern in the s.. Since the late 19th century, the planet’s average surface temperature has Mar 12, · This approach works best if the topic of your argumentative essay is highly polemical or is a potential seed for different discussions. For instance, such issues as causes of global warming, gender identification problems, and philosophical problems work best if the Rogerian approach is applied
No comments:
Post a Comment